In December 2019 year Ukraine and Russia have entered into a new gas transit for five years, which will bring Ukraine about seven billion dollars. It is formed on the principle of "download or pay", that is, determines the minimum volume of gas, for the transportation of which you need to pay annually, regardless of the actual volumes of transit. it 65000000000 cubic meters per 2020 year and by 40 v 2021-2024 years. However, last news indicate that, that the continuation of transit after 2024 under big question, therefore, alternative scenarios for the future of the Ukrainian gas transportation system should also be considered.

Why is transit falling?

Although in 2020 the volume of signed capacities was 65000000000 cubic meters, The real volume of transit from Russia was 55000000000. This is on 38% less, than in 2019 year, and in general a low indicator over the past thirty years. Design capacity of the Ukrainian gas transmission system allows you to pump 146 000 000 000 cubic meters, That is, now it is loaded by less than half.

The main reason for reducing transit through Ukraine – construction of bypass pipelines. Nord Stream between Russia and Germany was launched back in 2011 year. And in 2020 Turkish Stream began operating in 1999. It has two "threads" with a total capacity of about 30000000000 cubic meters: one goes to Turkey, another – to the countries of Southern and South-Eastern Europe. AT 2020 Greece and Bulgaria already received almost all their natural gas through the new gas pipeline.

Moreover, There is still the possibility of completing Northern Stream-2. This gas pipeline is built on more 90%, However, c 2019 A year of work on him stopped due to US sanctions. This is one of the factors, which made possible the already mentioned new contract for the transit of gas from Russia through Ukraine.

Completion of Nord Stream 2 today – This is a political question. The existing capacities for gas transit to Europe is more than enough, but the construction of another gas pipeline will allow Russia to completely abandon the use of the Ukrainian gas transportation system. In February 2021 the construction of the North Stream-2 has resumed despite the sanctions, And Germany still supports this project. However, this does not yet guarantee its completion and commissioning.

Financial component

If the transit of gas through Ukraine will stop, primarily, Tariffs for the use of the gas transmission system for internal consumers will increase.

According to preliminary estimates, tariff income of the operator of the GTS of Ukraine in 2020-2024 years will be 225 000 000 000 hryvnia (With VAT). Of these only 40000000000 hryvnia – from transportation of gas inside Ukraine and +185000000000, That is more 80% – from the transit.

Continuing the transit of Russian gas to Europe through the gas transportation system of Ukraine positively affects not only the income of a state -owned company, but also on the economic situation in the country as a whole. Each year this contract will bring 2% GDP and additional revenues to the budget. Only in 2020 year OGTSU paid almost 15000000000 hryvnias of taxes. For comparison, In the budget of this year, the programs for supporting small and medium -sized businesses laid down 12000000000.

After 2024

The contract guarantees Ukraine to five years transportation revenues, And it can be extended. However, it is possible, that after 2024 The transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine will still stop. Therefore, such a development of events should be taken into account in plans for the coming years.

General Director of the Operator of the GTS of Ukraine Sergey Makolon has already noted, that the company focused its capital investment on those objects, which will be used without transit from Gazprom. In the event of its termination, unexplored capacities will gradually divert.

"Respectively – In case of complete rejection of transit by our territory – It will no longer be possible to perceive the Ukrainian GTS as an affordable reserve option ", – Makoon said.

Moreover, The company is working on optimization and automation of processes.

“Our plan is for now – reduce operating expenses to this level, So that even in the absence of transit, we can receive income from gas transportation to Ukrainian consumers and from Ukrainian production by such tariffs, which will be acceptable to them ", – Says the CEO of OGTSU.

Another area of ​​work – Further cooperation with European companies and the development of services, which can bring additional income and attract free system power. In particular, Short-haul and customs warehouse. Customs warehouse 10 gas storages were launched in 2017 year. It enables Ukrainian and foreign companies to store gas in Ukraine during 1095 days without paying taxes and customs duties. You can sell gas storage services to traders from neighboring countries, where there is a shortage of gas storage facilities, eg, From Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova.

Short-Haul service (or restrictions power) Allows European energy companies to book the capacities of the Ukrainian GTS for a “short” gas transit from one country to another. For the first time this opportunity was used in March 2020: Ukraine has carried out gas transit from Hungary to Slovakia by order of a German company.

“According to the operator, The advantage of Short-haul through the Ukrainian GTS is lower than the price for example, gas transit from Poland to Hungary will cost 27% cheaper, than through the Czech Republic and Slovakia, – comments Sergey Yevtushok, external analyst for DiXi Group.– The authority of the new operator directly depends on the development of the portfolio of his services and compliance with the requirements of the network codes. In this case, more and more European traders will begin to understand, that Ukrainian GTS – This is not only a "pipe" from Russia to Europe, but also a flexible tool for transporting and storage of gas ".

At the beginning 2020 years have been performed test transit operations along the routes of Slovakia-Hungary, Slovakia-Polsha and Hungary-Slovakia and from the "customs warehouse" to Slovakia, Poland and Hungary.

Not only natural gas

Another potential direction can be the transportation of biomethane – The operator of the GTS of Ukraine and the bioenergy Association of Ukraine are already cooperating in the study of this area. As well as hydrogen: With the development of renewable energy and the rejection of fossil fuel, the demand for natural gas in Europe will fall to 2050 in many sectors it should replace it precisely "green" hydrogen. European hydrogen strategy defines Ukraine as a priority partner of the EU in the implementation and supply of the latest energy resource to the European market.

The GTS operator is studying the ability to transport hydrogen through the Ukrainian gas transmission system. However, This is not a prospect 2024, But rather several decades. For the transfer of hydrogen and Ukraine, and EU countries should be technologically ready.

Is it possible to use the existing gas transmission system for transporting hydrogen and what kind of modernization will be needed, studies will show. There are already several such projects in Europe, in particular, Hydeploy in the UK: In the campus of Kilsk University, they began to use a mixture from heating from 20% hydrogen and natural gas.

In Ukraine, tests are also tested regarding the possibilities of transporting and using hydrogen. AT 2020 the year "Regional Gas Company" began to explore the behavior of hydrogen and hydrogen mixtures in Ukrainian gas pipelines. While the tests are carried out at five training grounds, But in 2023 year, as an experiment, a hydrogen and gas mixture will begin to supply in two villages.